Outcomes from the Australian federal election

The Australian federal election held on 3 May 2025 resulted in a decisive victory for the incumbent Australian Labor Party (ALP), which not only increased its majority in the House of Representatives but also expanded its presence in the Senate. This strengthened position enhances the ALP government’s ability to pass legislation to advance its policy initiatives.

Following these changes, there will be impacts for certain industries arising from the election.

Change of relevant ministers

Following the election, the ALP moved to revise its Ministry to allow for representation according to its factional arrangements. This has led to the former Attorney–General and the former Minister for Industry, Science and Resources being removed from leadership of those portfolios to be replaced with Michelle Rowland as Attorney–General and Senator Tim Ayres as Minister for Industry, Science and Innovation. The appointment of Senator Ayres will be of significant interest to industry both as leading Australian manufacturing initiatives (including advanced manufacturing) and as having responsibility for the Anti–Dumping Commission (ADC), which also conducts the International Trade Remedies Forum.

The work of the ADC will be watched closely as many in the local industry fear that the new United States of America (US) tariffs (once settled) may divert existing manufacturing capacity in China and other Asian countries away from existing markets in the US into other economies, increasing the risks of goods being ‘dumped’ in Australia. There is no doubt that Australian border agencies and manufacturers will be monitoring increases in imports of raw materials and manufactured goods to identify any increases that may cause injury to the Australian market.

However, there has been no change in other Ministries relating to trade, infrastructure and agriculture, which will be a relief for industries that can build on their existing relationships.

Senator Don Farrell retains Trade and Tourism, Catherine King remains Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, while Julie Collins stays in the key Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Ms Collins previously took over the agriculture ministry in mid-2024, replacing Senator Murray Watt, who was put in charge of employment and is now the Environment and Water Minister. All of them are cabinet ministers.

Further, Senator Anthony Chisholm has been reappointed as Assistant Minister for Agriculture and is now Assistant Minister for Resources.

Response to the US tariffs and global trade uncertainty

While the future of the proposed US tariffs remains uncertain, now that the election has been completed, Australian authorities will continue to negotiate with the US to reduce or remove the tariffs imposed on US imports of Australian products. While the general ‘baseline’ tariff remains at 10%, there are current tariffs of 25% on Australian steel, aluminium and automotive components. There is also a US inquiry into potential additional tariffs on Australian pharmaceutical imports due to the ‘support’ provided by our Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, which could lead to the imposition of new tariffs on such products.

Notwithstanding the objection to the new US tariffs, Australian authorities have confirmed that Australia will not be imposing retaliatory tariffs on US imports into Australia and will continue to pursue and develop its previous free trade agenda.

The Australian free trade agenda

The return of the previous federal government will continue its previous free trade agenda, together with new and renewed negotiations on other free trade agreements (FTA). This looks likely to include the following:

• Commencement and implementation of the FTA with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) known as the Australia–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This will require Australia and the UAE to complete their required domestic adoption processes before CEPA can commence. The commencement of the CEPA may also provide momentum towards negotiations with the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for an FTA with the GCC. That momentum would also be supported by recent announcements on trade deals between the GCC and the US.
• Continuation of negotiations with India to complete the second stage of our FTA with India, the Australia–India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). The first stage of that FTA, which delivered substantial tariff reductions and improved market access arrangements for both countries, is the Australia–India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), which commenced on 29 December 2023.
• Implementation of the Second Protocol to amend the agreement establishing the ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA), which came into effect for Australia and several other parties to AANZFTA on 21 April 2025. According to the DFAT website, the Second Protocol ‘improves processes for traders to access the AANZFTA’s existing tariff preferences and provides new market access commitments and regulatory certainty for service providers. The Upgrade introduces three new chapters to the Agreement: Micro-Small-and-Medium Enterprises, Government Procurement, and Trade and Sustainable Development (a first for ASEAN FTA commitments)’.
• A renewed commitment to negotiations with the EU for a proposed Australia-EU FTA. Previously, it appeared that the parties could not agree on some fundamental concessions which had been sought from each other, so formal negotiations had been deferred. However, following the uncertainty created by the new US tariffs, it has been reported that Australia and the EU may be willing to re-engage in new negotiations towards completing the EU with further concessions to be granted by each party, including Australia potentially being willing to remove the Luxury Car Tax on vehicles from the EU.

The Australian manufacturing sector

In our earlier comments, we referred to the appointment of Senator Tim Ayres as Minister for Industry.

Senator Ayres was previously the Assistant Minister for Trade and Assistant Minister for a ‘Future Made in Australia’. That experience will put him in an ideal position to advance government initiatives around manufacturing and advanced manufacturing, including those to be implemented through the Future Made in Australia Act 2024 (and related legislation), which received Royal Assent late in 2024.

As with developments elsewhere in the world, Australia proposes to develop an increased domestic manufacturing capacity to assist our economy, to provide additional sources of advanced products for export and to guard against undue reliance on overseas manufacturing.

One other vital consideration for industry is the progress in consideration of recommendations from the International Trade Remedies Forum from late 2024, aimed at improving the operations of the ADC and the anti–dumping and subsidies regime. A new commissioner and Minister have been appointed for the ADC. We hope that the response to, and implementation of, these recommendations will become a priority for the new government.

Digitisation and digitalisation

At this stage, there are no indications that the reinstated federal government will move away from its previous commitments to adopt further measures in relation to digitisation and digitalisation of the supply chain. Indeed, on the morning after the election, Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that embracing technology would be a key piece to the government’s agenda for this term, including cybersecurity and the use of artificial intelligence. Hopefully, that commitment and associated resources are provided to the government border agencies developing the use of regulation and technologies to facilitate and secure trade, including the Australian Border Force, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Simplified Trade System Unit (within Austrade). One example of support which the government should provide is support for the ongoing work being undertaken by the Attorney–General’s department regarding the possible adoption of the UN Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR). Another example is the need to expedite Australia’s maritime single window to enable a single, centralised, digital platform to collect and exchange information with ships at ports.

Competition issues

Over time, we have reported on competition issues affecting our international supply chain, including ownership and operation of shipping lines and airlines, ports, airports and the landside facilities used in the private supply chain to facilitate the movement of goods through ports and airports. Issues also include the conditions of access to those facilities, the cost of accessing those facilities, the need for competition in the provision of services and related costs such as demurrage and detention charges in relation to container movements. There is also the proposed substantive legislative change by way of the proposed reforms to Part X of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 which would reduce (or eliminate) the services on which shipping lines would be able to work together to set services and charges.

There are already significant local resources available to support such reforms, including the annual ACCC Container Stevedoring Monitoring Reports (the most recent version having been published in December 2024) and the Productivity Commission report into Australia’s Maritime Logistics System, provided to government in late 2022 and released to the public in January 2023. Sadly, there has been no response from the Federal government to the Productivity Commission report. A response is well overdue, as the ongoing absence of a response in such a vital sector is hard to understand. There are also international resources to support reform, including the work of the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) and the European Community competition policy in relation to maritime competition, which provided for the expiry of the previous Consortia Block Exemption Regulation in April 2024.

Awaiting the new developments

Although the election has only recently concluded and the new government and Ministry have just been appointed, the international supply chain industry remains critical to Australia’s social and economic well-being. It is therefore in the national interest for the government to act swiftly on the issues outlined above — ideally by issuing a comprehensive statement detailing its intentions, proposed actions, and an accompanying timeline for implementation.

Contact us

If you are a business in the supply chain industry and would like to discuss the impact of the 2025 federal election, please contact a member of our Customs & Trade team.